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The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, by William Strauss, Neil Howe
Ebook The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, by William Strauss, Neil Howe
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This astonishing book will change the way you see the world--and your place in it. With startling originality, The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about a new American era that will begin just after the millennium.
William Strauss and Neil Howe base this vision on a provocative new theory of American history. With the same intellectual audacity that animated their previous best-sellers, Generations and 13th-GEN, the authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras--or "turnings"--that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis--the Fourth Turning--when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.
Strauss and Howe locate today's America as midway through an Unraveling, roughly a decade away from the next era of Crisis. In a brilliant analysis of the post-World War II period, they show how generational dynamics are the key to understanding the cycles of American history. They draw vivid portraits of all the modern generations: the can-do G.I.s, the mediating Silent, the values-absorbed Boomers, the pragmatic 13ers, and the child Millennials. Placed in the context of history's long rhythms, the persona and role of each generation become clear--as does the inevitability of the coming Crisis.
By applying the lessons of history, The Fourth Turning makes some bold and hopeful predictions about America's next rendezvous with destiny. It also shows us how we can prepare for what's ahead, both individually and as a nation. As Future Shock did in the 1970s and Megatrends did in the 1980s, this groundbreaking book will have a profound effect on every reader's perception of where we've been and where we're going.
- Sales Rank: #607919 in Books
- Published on: 1997-01-27
- Released on: 1996-12-27
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.75" h x 6.50" w x 1.50" l,
- Binding: Hardcover
- 382 pages
Most helpful customer reviews
142 of 148 people found the following review helpful.
Fasten your seatbelts
By Anand Rangarajan
This is the kind of book I should ordinarily despise. It contains a broad arc of history viewed internally and is epic in the worst way possible. And yet, it is incredibly compelling for two reasons: (i) there is something to be said for viewing history from the perspective of generational change and (ii) the prediction made in the book (written in 1998) that we will enter a time of crisis around 2005 give or take a few years was spot on. In addition, minor points should be given for turning the spotlight on the financial world as the catalyst for the crisis of 2008.
In a nutshell, the book advances the view that history roughly repeats itself every 80 years. Further, every 80 year period is characterized by the arrival of Artists (silent generation in this cycle), Prophets (boomers), Nomads (Gen Xers) and Heroes (millennials). Previous incarnations of this cycle ended with the war of independence, the civil war and world war II. This naturally sets up the denouement for this cycle which the authors expect to occur in the 2025 time frame. Each cycle is divided into turnings: the present one is characterized by First (High: 1946-1964), Second (Awakening: 1964-1984), Third (Unraveling: 1984-2008) and Fourth (Crisis: 2008-202X). From the book's perspective and Neil Howe's subsequent blog posts, we entered the Fourth Turning in 2008. There's nothing spooky or mystical about these cycles and turnings: instead the authors stress that human nature and culture seem to have these rhythms and that Anglo-American history is stable enough to be characterized in this manner. Other cultures may either be too stable or too chaotic to follow this type of pattern.
Prior to the arrival of Donald Trump and despite the eerie portend of the financial crisis, I would have dismissed this book. Now, it looks positively prophetic. Is there any doubt now that the combination of (i) income inequality, (ii) the economic problems of the white working class, (iii) the culture wars, (iv) multiculturalism and globalism, (v) the ravages of identity politics and postmodernism and (vi) terrorism is not going to be a combustible mix over the next decade? And that these will simultaneously distract us from combating global warming - the clear threat of the next era? While I find it hard to buy into the notion that the US will face an existential crisis (as predicted by the book), there's definitely merit in the view that the next ten years will probably have the capability of shocking us however jaded we may be at the present time.
17 of 19 people found the following review helpful.
A Fourth Turning Prophecy of Hope
By Peter C. Patton
As a soon to pass Silent Generation elder aged 82 and former professor of history, I found this book to be fascinating. Every few days I reread the saecular Fourth Turning prophecy on pages 272-302 with a sense of hope for our country and the world. So far we have handled their predicted, or actually just suggested, catalyst events pretty well. The housing bust in 2008 was handled awkwardly, but the looming student higher education debt crisis may be three times as large. We escaped the Ebola plague very neatly, but we are now importing antibiotic resistant pneumonia in infected Syrian refugees. Russia did not invade Lithuania, but they did invade the Ukraine and annexed the Crimea, which we essentially ignored. It’s not a catalyst if it doesn’t cause a reaction! Unfortunately, we did not ignore the 9/11 terrorist destruction of the WTC, but we and the world would be better off had we done so. We have been playing the opposite role of King Midas in the Middle East, everything we touch there turns to dross rather than gold. I am amazed that men educated at Yale, Princeton, and Harvard would think that they could solve the 9000 year-old problem of internecine warfare in the Middle East in one or two presidential terms. The global disorder suggestion in the book may come in the form of a worldwide populist movement and the breakup of the EEC. Both of which would be a good thing in my opinion. How else can we rid the world of a totally corrupt bureaucratic establishment? There are only two kinds of people in the world, direct creators of wealth and everybody else. Bureaucrats and government employees create no wealth, but rather live off the wealth created by those who do real productive work. In the meantime we anticipate the forthcoming coming elections in France, the Netherlands, and Germany with great interest.
Peter C. Patton, Ph.D.
28 of 31 people found the following review helpful.
Well worth the many hours required to read and absorb the material
By Ronnie Lajoie
This followup to "Generations" digs deeper into the science behind why societal behavioral patterns seem to repeat themselves over the ages, despite what we too often believe to be a linear form of emotional and spiritual progress. Despite our best intentions, the bottom line is that teenage kids (in a quest for showing independence) don't what to be like their parents, thus setting up a series of overlapping pendulum swings in the moods of people at large. Combine this with almost magnetic alignment of generation cohorts due to disruptive events (the latest being "9/11"), and we have a pattern of major generational mood swings of varying intensity. The latest mood swing that the authors forecast 20 years earlier is that the next crisis period (which we are now in) would increase nationalistic and anti-immigration rhetoric. There are many other pendulum swing patterns that I am increasingly observing now that I have lived long enough (50+ years) to see the opposite extremes. These two books and their generation-specific ones are not an easy, weekend read. They are almost like reading a PhD thesis, though fortunately without all the scientific "big words". The books are easy to understand, they just contain a LOT of information, and should yield a lot of deep thought and observation afterwards.
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